The coastal domestic trade coal shipping market is promising, and the coal sea freight continues to rise. This is the fourth consecutive month after the coal shipping cost has been oscillating and falling. The fifth week will continue to pick up, and the coastal transportation market will see “Dawnâ€. Coal will be used in the short term. The shipping market situation is positive.
I. The price of sea freight rises. In the short term, coal shipping will usher in a warm spring.
According to the freight rate of seaborne coal developed and tested in the Qinhuangdao Maritime Coal Trading Market, the freight rate of seaborne coal has been rising since mid-February, and closed at 933 points on March 1 and up 759.75 on February 1. 22.8%. The average price of routes in February rose across the board. The average quoted price for seaborne freight from 2-3 million tons of ships from Qinhuangdao port to Shanghai and Zhangjiagang routes were RMB 32.4/ton and RMB 34.9/ton, respectively, up 2.5% and 9% from the previous month; Qinhuangdao The average quoted price for coal sea freight from Hong Kong's 4-5 million tons ship type to Shanghai route was RMB 30.3/ton, which was an average increase of RMB 1.5/ton from the previous month, an increase of 5.2%. The freight rate for coal from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou Port of 50,000-60,000 tons was also increased again from the average price of 37.7 yuan/ton in January to 37.9 yuan/ton. As of March 5, the average price of major routes to ports in the Bohai Rim to the south is: Qinhuangdao-Shanghai 2-3 million tons ship average price 37.1 yuan / ton, 4-5 million tons ship average price 36.6 yuan / ton; The average price of 2-3 million tons of ships on the Qinhuangdao-Zhangjiagang route was 40.2 yuan/ton, and the average price of 5 to 60,000 tons of ships on the Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou-Hong Kong route was closed at 42.2 yuan/ton. The freight rates of major airlines have increased significantly, setting a high point since last October.
According to shipping industry insiders, the market demand for 2-3 million tons of ships is still relatively large, the price of sea freight continues to rise, and the sea freight price increases on the Zhangjiagang and Shanghai routes continue to increase, with an average increase of 2 yuan per month in early March. About tons. At present, the market demand for this type of ship is facing a tight schedule. First, the increase in demand and the second is due to the impact of the Lunar New Year in China. Ships on the original route or the owner of the ship on the market due to the suspension of navigation have increased compared with the previous days. The freight rate is expected to continue to increase. According to reports, the demand for 3-4 million tons of ships has also recently increased, and the freight rates have increased significantly.
2. The number of ships in the Bohai Rim Port has been increased or increased, and the number of ships in the anchorage area has increased. Recently, the number of vessels in the Bohai Bohai Coal Shipping Port Anchorage has increased, and the demand for transport capacity of the coal pulled ships has not diminished, and it has maintained a steady trend of rising. According to data from Qinhuangdao port production morning report, in the second half of February 2012, the number of anchorage ships in the three ports around the Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, and Guotou Jingtang Port) has increased rapidly.
In February, bad weather such as rain, snow, and fog occurred in northern China, adding a lot of bad influence to the port operations of coal. At one point, the Qinhuangdao port field had risen to 8.435 million tons on February 23, reaching the highest level since last year. After a short-term port deportment and transfer, the port site has decreased. Among them, Qinhuangdao port coal yard was restored to a level of approximately 7.435 million tons on March 9. The number of ships in Bohai Bay Sanmen yards and anchorages decreased significantly, and the downstream demand increased compared with the previous period. With the arrival of the Daqin Line inspections in April, the downstream enterprises are expected to increase their “back-up bank†efforts in the later period, and it is expected that the sea freight rates in late March will remain. There was a slight rebound.
Third, the downstream coal-consuming enterprises have obvious enthusiasm for restocking, which has boosted the growth of ocean freight. As the Chinese New Year of the Lunar New Year passed, the resumption of work by large and medium-sized enterprises in the south led to an increase in demand for coal.
The characteristics of high stocks at major ports of unloading at the beginning of 2012 (Figure 5) have gradually faded. The “de-stocking†of coal has come to an end and the enthusiasm for additional inventory has increased significantly. Coal demand has improved compared to the “freezing point†before and after the Spring Festival. The daily coal consumption of the power plant has increased, and the inventory of power plants and ports has also fallen from the previous high point, which will stimulate the enthusiasm of coal procurement in the consumer region. Since mid-February, coal inventories in such consumer regions as Guangzhou Port have entered a downward channel and have now declined. To about 2.7 million tons. Since the beginning of this week, the demand for transport capacity from the port of shipping of the Bohai-Rim coal to the Guangzhou route has continued to recover, and the freight rate has continued to rise slightly.
In addition, the latest ten-year production statistics released by China Iron and Steel Association on March 7 showed that the average daily production of crude steel of key enterprises in late February 2012 was 1,547,200 tons, which was a 1.32% decrease from the ring in mid-February; according to China Steel Spot Network The market report shows that since mid-October 2011, the average daily output of crude steel in the country has dropped sharply. The output value in the first half of October was 1.93 million tons, and it had fallen to 1.71 million tons in the end of the month, and it has been four months since then. Inside, the average daily output was maintained at 1.66-1.69 million tons. At present, domestic steel prices have risen for two consecutive weeks. The quantity of imported iron ore has dropped to a certain extent, and steel stocks have declined. This may lead to an increase in coal consumption in the later period, which will play a positive role in the recovery of the coal shipping market. However, as the entire downstream demand slows in the second quarter and later, and the cost of arrival increases, the rise in steel prices will be hindered, or it will have an adverse effect on the shipping market.
Fourth, there is limited recovery space, and the biggest obstacle to the delivery of transportation capacity is the slowdown in demand. This is the fundamental reason that the coal market continued its weak market in January and February of this year. With the arrival of the off-season coal season and the recent drop in imported coal prices, the total amount of imported coal in the second quarter may have increased compared with the present, which will affect the coal market and the coastal coal shipping market will usher in a new round of fluctuations. The rise in sea freight rates may be suppressed later.
According to a series of data recently released by the Ministry of Transport, the country's shipbuilding capacity reached 76.65 million DWT in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and the total number of dry bulk carriers of more than 10,000 tons engaged in domestic coastal transportation was 42.87 million DWT, which was higher than at the end of 2010. With an increase of 8.34 million dwt, the net capacity growth was 24.2%. Among them, the newly built ships that have been put into operation since 2011 (including the completion of operations at the end of 2010 and operational in 2011) accounted for 89.7% of the total transportation capacity in the same period. Between 2009 and 2011, the total number of newly constructed ships was 19.8 million dwt, accounting for 46.4% of the total capacity of dry bulk carriers above the existing coast. Among the newly built ships in recent years, there are a large number of Panamax vessels on the 50,000-ton level. Since 2009, this type of ship has built a total of 108 new ships/6.07 million dwt, accounting for 79.4% of the total number of vessels (136 vessels) of this type, accounting for 30.5% of the total tonnage of new dry bulk carriers since the coast of 2009. Such increased capacity will have a huge impact on the coastal coal shipping market after it is put on the market. Coastal coal transportation industry with fierce market competition will eventually resist overcapacity and will be paralyzed during the downturn.
I. The price of sea freight rises. In the short term, coal shipping will usher in a warm spring.
According to the freight rate of seaborne coal developed and tested in the Qinhuangdao Maritime Coal Trading Market, the freight rate of seaborne coal has been rising since mid-February, and closed at 933 points on March 1 and up 759.75 on February 1. 22.8%. The average price of routes in February rose across the board. The average quoted price for seaborne freight from 2-3 million tons of ships from Qinhuangdao port to Shanghai and Zhangjiagang routes were RMB 32.4/ton and RMB 34.9/ton, respectively, up 2.5% and 9% from the previous month; Qinhuangdao The average quoted price for coal sea freight from Hong Kong's 4-5 million tons ship type to Shanghai route was RMB 30.3/ton, which was an average increase of RMB 1.5/ton from the previous month, an increase of 5.2%. The freight rate for coal from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou Port of 50,000-60,000 tons was also increased again from the average price of 37.7 yuan/ton in January to 37.9 yuan/ton. As of March 5, the average price of major routes to ports in the Bohai Rim to the south is: Qinhuangdao-Shanghai 2-3 million tons ship average price 37.1 yuan / ton, 4-5 million tons ship average price 36.6 yuan / ton; The average price of 2-3 million tons of ships on the Qinhuangdao-Zhangjiagang route was 40.2 yuan/ton, and the average price of 5 to 60,000 tons of ships on the Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou-Hong Kong route was closed at 42.2 yuan/ton. The freight rates of major airlines have increased significantly, setting a high point since last October.
According to shipping industry insiders, the market demand for 2-3 million tons of ships is still relatively large, the price of sea freight continues to rise, and the sea freight price increases on the Zhangjiagang and Shanghai routes continue to increase, with an average increase of 2 yuan per month in early March. About tons. At present, the market demand for this type of ship is facing a tight schedule. First, the increase in demand and the second is due to the impact of the Lunar New Year in China. Ships on the original route or the owner of the ship on the market due to the suspension of navigation have increased compared with the previous days. The freight rate is expected to continue to increase. According to reports, the demand for 3-4 million tons of ships has also recently increased, and the freight rates have increased significantly.
2. The number of ships in the Bohai Rim Port has been increased or increased, and the number of ships in the anchorage area has increased. Recently, the number of vessels in the Bohai Bohai Coal Shipping Port Anchorage has increased, and the demand for transport capacity of the coal pulled ships has not diminished, and it has maintained a steady trend of rising. According to data from Qinhuangdao port production morning report, in the second half of February 2012, the number of anchorage ships in the three ports around the Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, and Guotou Jingtang Port) has increased rapidly.
In February, bad weather such as rain, snow, and fog occurred in northern China, adding a lot of bad influence to the port operations of coal. At one point, the Qinhuangdao port field had risen to 8.435 million tons on February 23, reaching the highest level since last year. After a short-term port deportment and transfer, the port site has decreased. Among them, Qinhuangdao port coal yard was restored to a level of approximately 7.435 million tons on March 9. The number of ships in Bohai Bay Sanmen yards and anchorages decreased significantly, and the downstream demand increased compared with the previous period. With the arrival of the Daqin Line inspections in April, the downstream enterprises are expected to increase their “back-up bank†efforts in the later period, and it is expected that the sea freight rates in late March will remain. There was a slight rebound.
Third, the downstream coal-consuming enterprises have obvious enthusiasm for restocking, which has boosted the growth of ocean freight. As the Chinese New Year of the Lunar New Year passed, the resumption of work by large and medium-sized enterprises in the south led to an increase in demand for coal.
The characteristics of high stocks at major ports of unloading at the beginning of 2012 (Figure 5) have gradually faded. The “de-stocking†of coal has come to an end and the enthusiasm for additional inventory has increased significantly. Coal demand has improved compared to the “freezing point†before and after the Spring Festival. The daily coal consumption of the power plant has increased, and the inventory of power plants and ports has also fallen from the previous high point, which will stimulate the enthusiasm of coal procurement in the consumer region. Since mid-February, coal inventories in such consumer regions as Guangzhou Port have entered a downward channel and have now declined. To about 2.7 million tons. Since the beginning of this week, the demand for transport capacity from the port of shipping of the Bohai-Rim coal to the Guangzhou route has continued to recover, and the freight rate has continued to rise slightly.
In addition, the latest ten-year production statistics released by China Iron and Steel Association on March 7 showed that the average daily production of crude steel of key enterprises in late February 2012 was 1,547,200 tons, which was a 1.32% decrease from the ring in mid-February; according to China Steel Spot Network The market report shows that since mid-October 2011, the average daily output of crude steel in the country has dropped sharply. The output value in the first half of October was 1.93 million tons, and it had fallen to 1.71 million tons in the end of the month, and it has been four months since then. Inside, the average daily output was maintained at 1.66-1.69 million tons. At present, domestic steel prices have risen for two consecutive weeks. The quantity of imported iron ore has dropped to a certain extent, and steel stocks have declined. This may lead to an increase in coal consumption in the later period, which will play a positive role in the recovery of the coal shipping market. However, as the entire downstream demand slows in the second quarter and later, and the cost of arrival increases, the rise in steel prices will be hindered, or it will have an adverse effect on the shipping market.
Fourth, there is limited recovery space, and the biggest obstacle to the delivery of transportation capacity is the slowdown in demand. This is the fundamental reason that the coal market continued its weak market in January and February of this year. With the arrival of the off-season coal season and the recent drop in imported coal prices, the total amount of imported coal in the second quarter may have increased compared with the present, which will affect the coal market and the coastal coal shipping market will usher in a new round of fluctuations. The rise in sea freight rates may be suppressed later.
According to a series of data recently released by the Ministry of Transport, the country's shipbuilding capacity reached 76.65 million DWT in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and the total number of dry bulk carriers of more than 10,000 tons engaged in domestic coastal transportation was 42.87 million DWT, which was higher than at the end of 2010. With an increase of 8.34 million dwt, the net capacity growth was 24.2%. Among them, the newly built ships that have been put into operation since 2011 (including the completion of operations at the end of 2010 and operational in 2011) accounted for 89.7% of the total transportation capacity in the same period. Between 2009 and 2011, the total number of newly constructed ships was 19.8 million dwt, accounting for 46.4% of the total capacity of dry bulk carriers above the existing coast. Among the newly built ships in recent years, there are a large number of Panamax vessels on the 50,000-ton level. Since 2009, this type of ship has built a total of 108 new ships/6.07 million dwt, accounting for 79.4% of the total number of vessels (136 vessels) of this type, accounting for 30.5% of the total tonnage of new dry bulk carriers since the coast of 2009. Such increased capacity will have a huge impact on the coastal coal shipping market after it is put on the market. Coastal coal transportation industry with fierce market competition will eventually resist overcapacity and will be paralyzed during the downturn.
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