Abstract On October 21, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the national economy in the third quarter of 2014. From the overall situation of China's economic operation in the first half of the year, a series of "micro-stimulus" and "stable growth"...
On October 21, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the national economy in the third quarter of 2014. From the overall situation of China's economic operation in the first half of the year, after the launch of a series of “micro-stimulus†and “stable growth†policies, GDP growth rate rose by 0.1 percentage points in the second quarter to 7.5%. The gradual fermentation of the policy has kept the economic growth rate in the first half of the year stable and in a reasonable range; but after entering the third quarter, the decline of some leading indicators has put some pressure on the economic operation. In this regard, experts and institutions are predicting a certain downward adjustment in the economic performance of the third quarter. "Although there is a certain downward pressure on the current economic operation, there is no stall situation." Wang Jun, deputy director of the Consulting and Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the economic growth rate in the third quarter. There will be a significant decline in the second quarter, or it will fall to the 7.2% to 7.3% range. Overall, the economic performance of the first three quarters will still be in the stable range of 7.3% to 7.4%. Although it is slightly lower than the expected target at the beginning of the year, it has not shown a low level of growth, so the first three quarters. The overall economic performance is still relatively stable.
Wang Jun said that with the steady growth of a series of steady growth and micro-stimulus policies in the first half of the year, the economic operation in the first three quarters maintained a steady growth trend, which will lay a good foundation for the completion of the annual growth target of 7.5%.
Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Financial Securities of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, predicted in an interview with Securities Daily that GDP growth in the third quarter may remain between 7% and 7.2%.
"The decline in GDP growth rate has a certain relationship with the current trend of economic data such as CPI, PPI, PMI. In general, GDP growth rate is within the current economic normal, 6% to 8% are all reasonable operating ranges. And 7% of the economic growth rate is more reasonable and stable." Dong Dengxin said.
Dong Dengxin believes that overcapacity is still a very serious problem at present, and the fluctuation of GDP growth rate will be obviously reflected in the capacity expansion of manufacturing and heavy industry. This is also a major reason why GDP growth will not rebound significantly. .
Li Jianjun, a researcher at the Bank of China International Finance Institute, believes that from the leading data indicators, the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, and the base figure was higher in the same period last year. The forecast for the third quarter economic growth is expected. The growth rate was about 7.3%, and the growth rate dropped by about 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
The China Economic and Financial Outlook report released by the Bank of China International Finance Research Institute believes that although the economic growth rate has declined, employment has remained stable, which is a highlight of the economic operation this year. Due to the expansion of the economic aggregate and the ability of the tertiary industry to absorb employment, the overall economic growth has significantly increased the role of employment. The appropriate slowdown in economic growth under the new normal is in line with the law, but it is still very important to maintain a certain speed. The next phase of fiscal policy will adjust the expenditure structure and implement policies to support small and micro enterprises; monetary policy will adhere to a stable total, directional regulation, and reduce social financing costs; real estate regulation will return to market.
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