Shida Early Commentary (8-13) • LME base metals closed higher on Thursday, boosted by short covering, among which aluminum prices rose significantly. Under speculative buying, LME aluminum exceeded 1700 resistance. This led to short covering and the transaction was relatively active at 130674 lots. The market feature of LME copper is that the spot premium has declined. At the close of trading, the spot premium for the three-month period was 75/80 USD/ton, which had reached 90 USD/ton in the trading session. The U.S. data waiting for the market did not bring significant waves to the market. Business inventories rose by 0.9% in June to a four-year high; in line with sales performance, growth in business inventories showed strong consumer spending; commercial sales rose 0.1% in June, and retail sales rose 0.7% in July. Retail sales rose 0.2% on the month; it provides some support for the dollar. However, at the same time, the French and German economies continued to expand in the fourth quarter, and the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro did not change significantly. For Thursday's strong performance, Lon-Aluminium believes that it is due to the behavior of market speculators. Although the fundamentals have the support of inventory decline and supply and demand improvement, but it has been a long time, so a good explanation is that the cumulative effect of the fundamental effects of speculative buying an excuse. Recent news on the aluminum market at home and abroad are basically positive. Both the United States and Canada experienced a decline in production in July. In North America, consumer demand has been quite strong this year. Currently, the mid-western aluminum spot rise in the United States has risen. It was 7.0-7.5 cents/lb. Driven by the economies of China and the United States, Japan’s end-market demand for aluminum products increased by 3% year-on-year in May. • The fundamental markets of China's aluminum market are also improving, mainly from three aspects: (1) Large increase in domestic exports and pending exports, ease of supply pressure; (2) Transport difficulties; both constitute purchases by aluminum producers Aluminum ingots are relatively difficult to increase, and the main reasons for the rise in spot and futures prices; in addition, there is an expected factor, (3) investors are optimistic about the current domestic aluminum market began short-term, so the willingness of aluminum consumers to buy and manufacturers There is an increase in the mentality of waiting for an increase in reluctance to sell, but the factors in this regard are not significant. In the future market, there are certain differences in the current price trend of copper. After a certain period of consolidation, the idea of ​​non-recession makes it more and more obvious that the view of breaking the shock range appears to be falling, but personally thinks that the support of the low stock price may be supportive. In the short-term, it will continue to be in a range-bound situation. 2780 and 2860 are key points, and the bottom supports 2650. The Shanghai Aluminum Association made a further rebound, but the space is quite limited. The reason is still that the production capacity that will be started and will be started is too strong, while consumption has not substantially improved, with the top resistance at 15,800 yuan/ton. Source: Shida Information
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