The surface of metallic lead is not as bright and bright as copper. Its application value is also mixed. It has the dual attributes of industrial value and toxic properties. Therefore, lead has received limited attention from the market and its appeal to the capital market is not as good as that of copper. For the analysis of lead price, the author pays more attention to the attributes of commodities, and their financial attributes are slightly more than those of commodities.
I. Adequate supply of lead ore With the resumption of global lead mine production capacity in many places, global lead concentrate supply remained stable in 2010, and new production capacity exceeded 200,000 tons. Combined with the development of recycled lead technology, the supply of lead upstream was relatively sufficient. In 2010, the amount of lead in lead mines in China was 2,193,900 tons, an increase of 20.51% over the same period of last year. Adequate supply of mines provides strong guarantees for the supply of lead cities.
II. The production of refined lead is stable, and the smelting capacity continues to expand The international lead and zinc research team statistics show that the global refined lead production in 2010 was 9.410 million tons, which was 6% higher than that in 2009. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's refined lead production in 2010 was 4.316 million tons, a 9.8% increase from 2009. The global refined lead output growth is relatively stable, and China's refined lead production growth is slightly higher than the global average. Benefiting from high lead prices and strong downstream demand, China's refined lead smelting capacity has expanded rapidly, from 3 million t/a in 2005 to 4.98 million t/a in 2010. The large-scale expansion of production capacity has ensured the supply of lead markets on the one hand, and it also imposes certain restrictions on lead prices on the other.
Third, the downstream demand is strong, lead stocks were significantly released in 2010 with the steady recovery of the global economy, especially the global auto industry is once again picking up, the world's lead consumption growth is stable and rapid. According to statistics from the International Lead and Zinc Group, global lead consumption in 2010 was 9.353 million tons, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year. In the rapidly growing global demand for lead, China’s contribution to demand has contributed. In 2010, the apparent lead consumption of refined lead in China reached 4,114,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, which was higher than the global average.
In China, 80% of lead is used to make lead-acid batteries. In recent years, the rapid development of the lead-acid battery industry has drastically boosted lead consumption in China. In 2010, China's lead-acid battery production reached 144,166,775 kVA, a substantial increase of 17.34% compared to 2009, providing a strong guarantee for China's lead demand.
By comparing the apparent growth rate of refined lead consumption and the growth rate of lead battery production, it is not difficult to see that before 2010, the apparent growth rate of refined lead consumption in China and the growth rate of lead storage batteries have a high degree of linkage. In general, lead consumption increases. Faster than lead battery production growth. However, the market has undergone certain changes since 2010, and the growth rate of lead-acid battery production is significantly higher than that of refined lead. It is inferred that China's lead stocks have been well digested in 2010, and refined lead stocks are at a relatively low level.
Consumption of lead-acid batteries has a clear seasonal pattern. In general, March-June is the peak season for consumption. During this period, the monthly output of lead-acid batteries is higher than the average annual production level of the whole year. The current market is in the peak season of consumption, and the downstream demand has strong support for lead prices.
Fourth, strong base metal performance, boosting market sentiment Since last year, the representative price of non-ferrous metals represented by copper is very eye-catching, adding to the market's attention to the lead market, the current global real economy running smoothly, systemic risk outbreak probability Lower, so the risk of a sharp drop in the price of non-ferrous metals is not significant, providing a solid support for lead prices.
In summary, due to the low attention of lead metal and the low speculation of its price, the introduction of lead** will open up a new capital market for lead markets, which will strengthen the financial attributes of lead prices. Benefiting from good fundamentals such as low inventory and high demand, lead prices may oscillate upwards in the late stages.
I. Adequate supply of lead ore With the resumption of global lead mine production capacity in many places, global lead concentrate supply remained stable in 2010, and new production capacity exceeded 200,000 tons. Combined with the development of recycled lead technology, the supply of lead upstream was relatively sufficient. In 2010, the amount of lead in lead mines in China was 2,193,900 tons, an increase of 20.51% over the same period of last year. Adequate supply of mines provides strong guarantees for the supply of lead cities.
II. The production of refined lead is stable, and the smelting capacity continues to expand The international lead and zinc research team statistics show that the global refined lead production in 2010 was 9.410 million tons, which was 6% higher than that in 2009. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's refined lead production in 2010 was 4.316 million tons, a 9.8% increase from 2009. The global refined lead output growth is relatively stable, and China's refined lead production growth is slightly higher than the global average. Benefiting from high lead prices and strong downstream demand, China's refined lead smelting capacity has expanded rapidly, from 3 million t/a in 2005 to 4.98 million t/a in 2010. The large-scale expansion of production capacity has ensured the supply of lead markets on the one hand, and it also imposes certain restrictions on lead prices on the other.
Third, the downstream demand is strong, lead stocks were significantly released in 2010 with the steady recovery of the global economy, especially the global auto industry is once again picking up, the world's lead consumption growth is stable and rapid. According to statistics from the International Lead and Zinc Group, global lead consumption in 2010 was 9.353 million tons, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year. In the rapidly growing global demand for lead, China’s contribution to demand has contributed. In 2010, the apparent lead consumption of refined lead in China reached 4,114,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, which was higher than the global average.
In China, 80% of lead is used to make lead-acid batteries. In recent years, the rapid development of the lead-acid battery industry has drastically boosted lead consumption in China. In 2010, China's lead-acid battery production reached 144,166,775 kVA, a substantial increase of 17.34% compared to 2009, providing a strong guarantee for China's lead demand.
By comparing the apparent growth rate of refined lead consumption and the growth rate of lead battery production, it is not difficult to see that before 2010, the apparent growth rate of refined lead consumption in China and the growth rate of lead storage batteries have a high degree of linkage. In general, lead consumption increases. Faster than lead battery production growth. However, the market has undergone certain changes since 2010, and the growth rate of lead-acid battery production is significantly higher than that of refined lead. It is inferred that China's lead stocks have been well digested in 2010, and refined lead stocks are at a relatively low level.
Consumption of lead-acid batteries has a clear seasonal pattern. In general, March-June is the peak season for consumption. During this period, the monthly output of lead-acid batteries is higher than the average annual production level of the whole year. The current market is in the peak season of consumption, and the downstream demand has strong support for lead prices.
Fourth, strong base metal performance, boosting market sentiment Since last year, the representative price of non-ferrous metals represented by copper is very eye-catching, adding to the market's attention to the lead market, the current global real economy running smoothly, systemic risk outbreak probability Lower, so the risk of a sharp drop in the price of non-ferrous metals is not significant, providing a solid support for lead prices.
In summary, due to the low attention of lead metal and the low speculation of its price, the introduction of lead** will open up a new capital market for lead markets, which will strengthen the financial attributes of lead prices. Benefiting from good fundamentals such as low inventory and high demand, lead prices may oscillate upwards in the late stages.
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