Developing new energy vehicles requires new strategic thinking

At present, all countries in the world are paying close attention to the strategy of deploying new energy vehicles. In particular, many efforts have been made in policy design, department coordination, etc. It is worth considering and drawing lessons from.

The replacement of existing key components such as the engine and the transmission by the battery and electric drive system will change the powertrain and energy supply system of the fuel vehicle. Therefore, as a subversive technology or alternative technology, automotive electrification technology has become a strategic consensus of all countries in the world and auto manufacturers. Similar alternative technologies have appeared many times in history, such as hydraulic excavation technology instead of mechanical excavation technology, liquid crystal flat panel display technology to replace traditional CRT (Cathode Ray Tube) technology, and digital photography replacement film.

It should be pointed out that disruptive technologies often cater to the needs of low-end customers or marginal markets with simple, convenient and low-cost features. In the early stages of development, disruptive technologies did not compete with mainstream market competitors for users, but instead focused on new market segments or marginal markets. Through continuous improvement of product performance, it gradually attracts customers in the existing mainstream market.

Research shows that industries dominated by new technologies can be roughly divided into four stages of development: budding, introduction, rapid development, and maturity. Among them, in the early stage of development, the most important thing is to give new technology a market opportunity so that it can obtain continuous improvement opportunities in the market segment. Most of the developed countries follow this rule. In the early 1990s when the Internet developed, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission stipulated that the Internet is a new thing. Excessive controls will stifle new things and establish several basic principles, including minimum interference and technology neutrality. Wait. This laid a solid foundation for the United States’ leading position in the Internet field today.

The development of new energy vehicles has also received strong support from various governments. The United States has adopted a self-certification system for low-speed electric vehicles and fuel vehicles, which makes it possible for small pure electric vehicles to enter the US market more smoothly. In the EU and Japan, they have reduced the technical requirements for low-speed vehicles in terms of passive safety such as collision protection, and subdivided the low-speed electric vehicles into two categories, light and heavy, depending on the situation. In April 2010, Seoul City, South Korea, started to allow low-speed electric vehicles to be tested in 25 designated areas and free of toll taxes during peak traffic hours. At the same time, Seoul's short-haul official vehicles will also be replaced by low-speed electric vehicles.

It is worth noting that in the early stages of the development of emerging technologies, the standard is not as high as possible. Generally speaking, foreign countries divide the electric vehicles into high-speed electric vehicles and low-speed electric vehicles at a speed of 50 km to 70 km per hour. There is a kind of misunderstanding in our country, thinking that "the pure electric car should do more than mid-range". However, due to the immaturity of battery technology at this stage, even if the government gives high subsidies, rational consumers will not choose to purchase. At the same time, we have imposed market access restrictions on small, low-speed electric vehicles, which has actually added new obstacles to the development of new energy vehicles. In fact, our country's new energy vehicles are in the transitional stage from the initial stage to the introduction stage. Moderate liberalization of market access, good regulation and guidance, and full competition for new products and technologies should be the consensus in policy formulation. Continuing to limit market access with high standards and high thresholds is likely to deprive us of the best time for the development of the electric vehicle industry.

Looking further, if emerging industries, including new energy vehicles, need to develop, they need to be further developed in several areas:

First, establish innovative strategic thinking. To develop a revolutionary and disruptive new technology, the first priority is to establish an innovative strategic thinking perspective. Automakers gradually realized that electric vehicles will become a milestone in the history of the automotive industry to "change the rules of the game." But who will become the leader in the future of this industry chain? Are vehicle manufacturers, battery manufacturers, power companies, or new businesses? The provider of the model is still difficult to predict. After all, this involves comprehensive factors such as the profit model, business model, and source of the industry's core competitiveness. The government must do is create a good environment for a number of technologies to "race", and finally to the market to select the most appropriate technology, of course, the most appropriate is not equal to the most "advanced."

Second, the use of stimulus measures to promote industrial development. The first is to encourage the diversification of technologies and products and provide market segments for new technologies. In response to the needs of the development of the Chinese market, we have formulated standards and regulations for electric vehicles, relaxed market access, guided technological diversification, product diversification, diversification of business models, and created an innovative and friendly market environment. The second is to formulate government procurement plans and establish a sound domestic market. In the context of globalization, the large-scale domestic market is still an important “springboard” for companies seeking to enter new industries or seize new opportunities. The third is to promote the simultaneous development of new energy vehicles and smart grids. After the large-scale development of electric vehicles, it will bring about a large number of battery disposal problems. This is a subject that must be planned in advance. In fact, large-size batteries still have 80% of energy storage after they can't provide power services for automobiles. It can not only provide reliable backup energy storage facilities for infrastructure such as buildings, but also enables car buyers to recover part of the battery cost through transfer.

In short, the global automotive industry is undergoing a strategic transformation. The next 5 to 10 years will be the golden period for the development of new energy vehicles. China has a certain market advantage and technological basis. If we can seize this historic opportunity, it will have a direct impact on the development of strategic emerging industries and the transformation and upgrading of economic structure.