International consultancy IHS iSupply said recently that in order to hurry to install solar photovoltaic systems before the further reduction of subsidies in 2012, it is expected that the global PV demand will rebound significantly in the fourth quarter, and the annual installed capacity will reach 21.9GW, an increase of 25% over the previous year. However, the global PV module gross margin will not improve in the near stage. In the first three quarters, the global PV installation volume was around 14GW. Henning Wicht, chief analyst of iSupply's solar industry, pointed out that due to the reduction of subsidy budget and the restrictions on PV installations by governments, the installed capacity of traditional PV markets such as Italy, Germany and France may decrease next year, leading to global installations next year. Or there will be a drop. "China and Japan may grow faster than originally expected, and the market size may continue to expand next year." He expects that the basic forecast for global PV market installations next year will be 20.5GW, which is lower than this year. However, considering that China, Germany, Italy and Other big countries still have some potential for growth, the installed capacity is expected to reach 24GW next year and continue to grow. China announced the PV national on-grid price in July, which will be a positive for domestic PV applications. iSupply expects China's annual PV installations to reach 1.5-2GW this year, more than double the 0.5GW of last year, and is expected to increase to 2.4-3.4GW next year. The German and Italian markets also have some potential for upside next year, because the price of cheap PV modules and systems makes the return on investment of solar energy still attractive. iSupply expects that in the fourth quarter of this year, German solar photovoltaics will achieve a flat price on the customer side, that is, the system unit power generation cost of the user side is equal to the user's payment of electricity. iSupply also expects that the installed capacity of Germany and Italy is expected to reach 5.9 GW and 6 GW this year. The basic installations of the two countries will reach 5 GW and 2.5 GW next year, and there is room for growth of 1 GW and 2 GW respectively. Haining pointed out that although global demand will continue to grow next year, there is still a serious overcapacity in the PV supply chain, which makes the price of photovoltaic products still declining. Even if the demand in the fourth quarter can be greatly improved, the gross profit margin of the photovoltaic manufacturing plant will not be significantly improved due to the digested inventory and technological upgrading. According to iSupply data, the silicon wafer supplier in the photovoltaic industry chain has the highest pressure at the end of the third quarter. Due to the stable price of silicon materials, the price of silicon wafers is forced to be compressed, while the photovoltaic cell and component suppliers have slightly higher gross profit, but most manufacturers have EBIT. Pre-tax profit) is still close to zero or even negative, and vertical integration plants may guarantee higher profit margins.
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